MLB Opening Pitch: Zerillo's MLB bets for Tuesday 4/16 

Rangers vs. Tigers

Tuesday, April 16, 1:10 p.m. ET, MLB.TV

Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

Jon Gray vs. Casey Mize

I touched on Casey Mize and his impressive pitch modeling metrics before his start last Tuesday against the Pirates. In that outing, Mize posted a 122 Stuff+ rating alongside a career-best 96.7 mph fastball (compared to 94.9 mph in his first start of 2024).

Among starters who have tossed at least five innings this season, Mize ranks ninth among 152 pitchers with a 121 Stuff+ figure and 22nd with a 106 Pitching+ rating. He has four above-average offerings, including an elite splitter (154 Stuff+), an improved fastball (119), a knuckle curve (116) and a slider (100).

Mize threw a sinker before undergoing Tommy John surgery in 2022. Still, he has opted for more four-seamers (43.5% vs. 30.3% career) and splitters (22.4% vs. 14.5% career) in this second phase of his professional career.

Based on a 39-start sample before this season, I maintain that Mize is likely severely under-projected (projected FIP range of 4.29 to 4.67). He's a different pitcher with this new mix at a higher velocity level, and Mize has a much higher ceiling than he previously showed.

Conversely, Jon Gray is showing signs of decline, with his fastball (94.3 mph) sitting a tick below his career average and 1.5 mph below his 2023 level (95.8 mph). Gray has posted a 79 Stuff+ rating without a single above-average offering (94 Stuff+ on his curveball; 79 or below on his other pitch types). He posted a 97 Stuff+ last season and 102 in 2022.

The biggest concern is the slider, which Gray has thrown 45% of the time this season (39.8% in 2023, 36.1% in 2022). The velocity on that pitch (88.6 mph) is up relative to previous seasons (87.3 mph in 2023, 85 mph in 2022), but the Stuff+ has declined dramatically (79, down from 116 last season and 139 in 2022).

Gray started throwing a sweeper after joining the Rangers in 2022 (35.5% usage) but went back to a traditional slider in the middle of last season, potentially to prevent injury. Still, the movement profile on this new slider pitch is nowhere near as dramatic or effective as the sweeper:

In 2022, Gray permitted a .164 expected batting average (xBA), a .271 expected slugging percentage (xSLG) and a .223 expected wOBA (xwOBA) on his sweeper.

In 2023, those numbers moved to .186, .296, and .252, respectively, but he only threw 150 sweepers total (compared to 733 in 2022). Instead, Gray tossed 802 sliders with solid results (.196 xBA, .293 xSLG, .228 xwOBA).

However, his slider has been less effective this season (.247 xBA, .457 xSLG, .326 xwOBA), and his remaining offerings — especially the fastball (.317 xBA, .513 xSLG, .397 xwOBA in 2023; .358 xBA, .582 xSLG, .460 xwOBA in 2024) — are getting hammered.

I project Mize and the Tigers as slight favorites (50.5%, -102 implied) in either half of this contest and would bet both of their first five innings (F5) and full-game moneylines to +105.

Bets: Tigers F5 Moneyline (+105 or better) | Tigers Moneyline (+105 or better)

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Rockies vs. Phillies

Tuesday, April 16, 6:40 p.m. ET, MLB.TV

Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

Austin Gomber vs. Ranger Suarez

I project a fairly substantial difference between these two projected starting pitchers — as much as an entire run on season-long ERA.

Ranger Suarez (projected FIP range of 4.03 to 4.26) has the same arsenal as last season (86 Stuff+ in 2024, 85 in 2023) but is showing improved command (42% zone rate vs. 39% career), with a 4.8% walk rate (8.3% career). He's had only one three-start stretch in the past two seasons with three or fewer walks allowed.

Suarez has a career 3.38 ERA, 3.70 FIP and 3.79 xFIP. He posted a 3.78 xERA and 3.82 xFIP during his last fully healthy season in 2022 (he had a delayed start to 2023 with forearm tightness). I expect him to pitch closer to those career averages and 2022 results than his 2024 projections might indicate.

Colorado's offense projects horrendous against southpaws, posting a 74 wRC+ against lefties in 2023, nine points below the next-closest team. The Rockies are off to an equally poor start this season (71 wRC+ vs. lefties), and I project their current lineup for a 68 wRC+ against left-handed pitching.

Conversely, the Phillies project as an above-average offense against lefties (111 wRC+; 108 in 2023).

Austin Gomber is also showing the same arsenal (79 Stuff+) as last season (78 Stuff+) and has 2024 projections (projected FIP range of 5.07 to 5.34) that align with the disastrous results from 2023 (5.50 ERA, 5.74 xERA, 5.08 xFIP).

I project the Phillies as -252 F5 favorites (71.55% implied), and I'd bet their first-half moneyline to -228 (69.55%), a 2% edge compared to my projected price.

Bets: Phillies F5 Moneyline (-228 or better) 

Cardinals vs. Athletics

Tuesday, April 16, 9:40 p.m. ET, MLB.TV

Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

Lance Lynn vs. JP Sears

Despite poor results in his first two 2024 starts, underlying indicators suggest that JP Sears has improved.

In his last outing, he earned a 1-0 F5 moneyline victory while holding the Rangers hitless until the sixth inning. Sears was locked in and hardly allowed a ball to leave the infield.

Sears has always shown aesthetically pleasing stuff (107 Stuff+), including a ton of spin on his slider, but his command (103 Location+) has noticeably improved this season. He's also dialed back his four-seam fastball usage (from 50.9% career to 34%), introduced a sinker (7.3%) and relied more frequently on his slider and changeup.

In sum, Sears's botERA projection is 2.95, a substantial difference from his 2024 projections (projected FIP range of 4.44 to 4.97).

Conversely, Lance Lynn's pitch modeling metrics (85 Stuff+, down from 92 from his sample last season with the Dodgers), velocity (91.4 mph, down from 92.2 mph last season) and underlying indicators (4.86 xERA in 2023; 4.49 in 2024) all point to him being a worse pitcher than Sears, despite slightly better projections (projected FIP range of 4.42 to 4.51). While Sears has a sub 3.00 botERA, Lynn's mark has climbed north of 5.00.

Lynn continues to surrender homers at an alarming rate (48 in 35 starts since the beginning of last season), and there are worse places for him to pitch than Oakland Coliseum (28th in HR park factor and 16% below league average from 2021-2024).

Still, I project the F5 moneyline as a coinflip and only made Oakland slight underdogs for the full game. Bet the A's in the first half to +108, and consider their full-game line to +116.

Bets: Athletics F5 Moneyline (+108 or better) | Athletics Moneyline (+116 or better) 

Zerillo's Bets for Tuesday, April 16

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• Arizona Diamondbacks (-118, 0.5u) at Superbook (bet to -120)
• Arizona Diamondbacks / Chicago Cubs, Over 9.5 (-115, 0.5u) at FanDuel (bet to -115)
• Cleveland Guardians / Boston Red Sox, Under 9 (-115, 0.5u) at BetMGM (bet to 8.5, -103)
• Detroit Tigers F5 (+110, 0.5u) at DraftKings (bet to +105)
• Detroit Tigers (+112, 0.5u) at FanDuel (bet to +105)
• Los Angeles Angels F5 (+130, 0.5u) at DraftKings (bet to +125)
• Los Angeles Dodgers (-225, 0.5u) at FanDuel (bet to -235)
• Oakland Athletics F5 (+110, 0.5u) at DraftKings (bet to +108)
• Philadelphia Phillies F5 (-210, Risk 1u) at FanDuel (bet to -228)
• San Diego Padres F5 (-125, Risk 0.5u) at BeTMGM (bet to -130)